Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got something to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
